polls in the swing states
Outside of the five states I discussed above, a recent poll of Arizona was great for the former vice president, while he wasn’t looking as strong in a survey of Georgia. But I would be very cautious about states in which we only have one or two recent polls. So please keep that caveat in mind, but here are all the states for which we got polls in April — even the ones with just one poll:
There were only 41 total polls of just 19 states released in April, at least by FiveThirtyEight’s count.
As Trump pushes to reopen the economy, seniors, who overwhelmingly give priority to defeating the coronavirus over getting back to work, are registering their disapproval. As commentators have noted, the pandemic has driven a wedge between retirees and less educated middle-age workers, who cannot work remotely and depend on a regular paycheck. The president needs to retain the support of both these groups, but he is finding it hard to please one without antagonizing the other.
While the country’s attention has been riveted on the COVID-19 pandemic, the general election contest is quietly taking shape, and the news for President Trump is mostly bad.
Those numbers match other recent state polling. Fox News found Biden up by 49%-41% in Michigan and 50%-42% in Pennsylvania in a pair of polls released Wednesday. And in Florida, Biden led Trump by 46%-42% in a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday.
“The president can’t bullshit his way out of this pandemic,” said Protect Our Care Executive Director Brad Woodhouse. “When you juxtapose his lack of preparedness, his lack of empathy, against these governors… they are trusted far more.”
The poll, which was conducted by NBC News/ Wall Street Journal in a survey of 900 registered voters, shows Biden up six points when the race is reduced to Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, states that analysts say could go either way in 2020.
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Even though Biden hasn’t gotten as much of the national spotlight as Trump, or even some governors, in the age of Covid-19, these polls suggest it might not matter much. Biden is ahead in most surveys conducted in states where Trump won in 2016 — states that will likely be key to a Democratic victory in November.
The recent polls could suggest that Trump’s high-profile coronavirus response is hurting his poll numbers rather than helping them. And even though Biden is largely confined to his house and can’t do rallies or in-person fundraisers, his comparatively low profile isn’t hurting him — yet.