what are the swing states 2016

What are the swing states 2016
Professor Joel Bloom has mentioned opinion polls, previous election results, media attention, candidate campaign stops, and major advertising buys as crucial factors in identifying swing states. A 2004 article in the Oregon Daily Emerald also cites movie director Leighton Woodhouse opining that there is a general consensus among most groups regarding a majority of the states typically thought of as swing states. [24] Additionally, the swing-state “map” may transform dramatically between election cycles, especially depending on the candidates and their policies. In addition, gradual shifts can occur within states due to changes in demography, geography, or population patterns. For example, many West-Coast or currently Republican states, like Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, and West Virginia, had been battlegrounds as recently as 2004. [25]
States where the election has a close result become less meaningful in landslide elections. Instead, states which vote similarly to the national vote proportions are more likely to appear as the closest states. For example, the states in the 1984 election with the tightest results were Minnesota and Massachusetts. A campaign strategy centered on them, however, would not have been meaningful in the Electoral College, as Democratic nominee Walter Mondale required victories in many more states than Massachusetts, Republican Ronald Reagan still would have won by a large margin. [4] Instead, the tipping-point state that year was Michigan, as it gave Reagan the decisive electoral vote. The difference in Michigan was nineteen percentage points, quite similar to Reagan’s national margin of eighteen percent. [4] Michigan would have been more relevant to the election results had the election been closer.

Michigan and Pennsylvania, neither of which has voted for a Republican for president since 1988, are included on our 2016 battleground map largely because of Donald Trump. If there’s a path to victory for the presumptive GOP nominee, it will likely go through these Rust Belt manufacturing giants, where his message on trade and the economy could take hold.
The hard-wired modern electoral map makes it hard to believe there was once a time when presidential elections unfolded across the national landscape, rather than in a random and limited collection of states.

The result could either be too close to call without counting every vote or else legal battles over election procedures may delay the result or force a recount. It could even be a tie, with both candidates stuck at 269, in which case the House of Representatives would vote to choose the next president.
Lastly he utilised his popularity among suburban voters to turn states like Virginia and North Carolina blue.

What are the swing states 2016
If a state votes for the same party in multiple consecutive elections, is it still a swing state?

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What are the swing states 2016
Recent toss-up map from 270towin.com
Current Real Clear Politics Consensus Poll: No recent poll

References:

http://www.politico.com/blogs/swing-states-2016-election/2016/06/what-are-the-swing-states-in-2016-list-224327
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/how-does-the-us-election-work-and-which-swing-states-will-determ/
http://www.amny.com/news/swing-states-explained-what-they-are-why-they-matter-in-the-2016-election-1-12408775/
http://constitutioncenter.org/blog/what-are-the-really-swing-states-in-the-2016-election/
http://www.debate.org/debates/The-one-who-passes-the-sentence-should-swing-the-sword/1/

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